Much political debate assumes that governments determine the future of the economy.

They do not. Governments influence many aspects of society, but they do not control the underlying direction of economic development.

That direction is determined principally by the availability of surplus energy.

Every economy is an energy system before it is a financial system. Without energy there is no transport, manufacturing, agriculture, communications or construction. More importantly, it is not simply the amount of energy that matters, but the surplus energy available after the energy sector has met its own needs.

When surplus energy is abundant, economies expand. Industries become more specialised. Trade grows over longer distances. Cities increase in size. Public services expand. Governments collect more tax revenue and can afford larger programmes.

When surplus energy begins to decline, the reverse process gradually takes place. Economic growth slows. Discretionary spending falls. Governments experience increasing financial pressure. Businesses consolidate or disappear. Production becomes more local because long and complex supply chains become increasingly difficult to sustain economically.

This is not primarily the result of government policy. It is the natural evolution of an economy responding to its energy base.

Governments certainly matter, but they operate within limits imposed by the physical economy. They can influence the detail without changing the overall direction.

For example, governments can influence:

• taxation;
• public spending;
• regulation;
• education;
• planning policy;
• land ownership;
• housing policy;
• the distribution of wealth;
• the legal rights of citizens.

These decisions affect how fairly society functions and who benefits from the available resources. They influence the quality of life, but they do not determine the overall size of the economy.

The size of the economy is determined by the quantity of surplus energy available to support productive activity.

This distinction is fundamental.

The structure of the economy evolves naturally in response to changing energy availability.

The details of how society operates are influenced by successive governments.

Confusing these two levels of change leads to unrealistic expectations. Elections cannot restore economic conditions that were made possible only by abundant, inexpensive surplus energy. Likewise, no government can legislate sustained growth if the underlying energy surplus is shrinking.

This helps explain why governments of different political parties often struggle with the same economic problems. Each administration introduces new policies, yet the broad direction remains remarkably similar because all are operating within the same energy constraints.

As surplus energy declines, the United Kingdom is experiencing a gradual transition towards a smaller, less complex economy. This should not be confused with a temporary recession. It represents a long-term structural adjustment driven by physical realities rather than political ideology.

The important political questions therefore become different.

Instead of asking how governments can restore perpetual economic growth, we should ask:

• How should land ownership be organised?
• How can essential services be protected?
• How can greater equality between citizens be maintained?
• How can communities become more resilient?
• How should power be distributed between central government and localities?

These are questions that governments can influence.

They cannot, however, determine the overall size of the economy. That is ultimately governed by the amount of surplus energy available to society.

Understanding this distinction changes the entire debate about Britain’s future. The evolution of the economy is largely determined by energy. Politics determines how society adapts to that evolution.