Read the full article here: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/05/29/304-has-growth-ended/

Dr. Tim Morgan’s article asks a big question: Has economic growth come to an end? He thinks it might have—and not just because of politics, bad decisions, or short-term problems, but because of something much deeper: the limits of energy and nature itself.

What’s the article about?

Morgan believes the global economy may have hit a turning point in 2023. Up until now, we’ve kept pushing for more growth—more money, more production, more consumption. But he argues that the real economy (what we physically do and make) is no longer keeping up with the financial economy (what we imagine through loans, debts, and stock markets).

He says the gap between what we think we have and what we actually do have is getting wider, and that spells trouble.

What’s causing the slowdown?

The main issue, according to Morgan, is energy. Everything we do—building houses, growing food, running hospitals—relies on energy, especially oil, gas, and coal. However, it now requires increasingly more energy just to extract that energy from the ground. This is referred to as the Energy Cost of Energy (ECoE).

The higher the ECoE, the less energy is left over for the rest of the economy to grow. Morgan says we’ve reached the point where the energy “surplus” is shrinking. That’s why prosperity—the ability of ordinary people to live comfortably—is already falling in many countries.

What does the future look like?

If Morgan’s right, we’ll see:

• A steady decline in real wealth over the next 25 years.
• Fewer things people can afford beyond basic needs (what he calls a collapse in “discretionary” spending).
• Financial systems are under strain because they’re based on the idea that growth will continue forever.

Is there anything we can do?

Morgan doesn’t give a lot of solutions in this piece, but he does hint that we’ll need to:

• Be more realistic about what the future holds.
• Stop pretending we can grow forever.
• Find ways to live well with less.

Final word

Dr. Morgan’s message is profound: the era of endless economic growth is over. We now need new ways to think about prosperity—ones based on what really matters, not just money and markets. This article is a great starting point for that conversation.