The growing influence of BRICS is usually discussed in terms of international politics, trade and the declining economic dominance of the Western world. But its significance may extend much further, eventually affecting the way ordinary people live, work and obtain the necessities of life.

BRICS began with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It has since expanded to include other important countries, several possessing substantial energy and mineral resources. Together, they are challenging the international economic arrangements long dominated by the United States and its allies.

Their ambition is to increase trade between themselves, reduce dependence upon the US dollar and gain greater control over their economic affairs.

But there is a fundamental difficulty. BRICS is attempting to strengthen an industrial economic system whose capacity for continued growth is already under pressure.

The Importance of Energy

The industrial world developed because abundant supplies of relatively inexpensive energy made it possible to produce and transport enormous quantities of goods.

As the Energy Cost of Energy (ECoE) increases, less surplus energy remains available to support economic activities beyond the provision of life’s necessities.

This is contributing to the shrinking economy, particularly through the increasing difficulty of sustaining discretionary consumption.

BRICS cannot escape this physical reality. China may manufacture consumer goods more cheaply than Britain, but its factories still require energy, materials and customers able to afford their products.

Changing the currency used in international trade does not change the energy required to manufacture and transport goods.

What Will Happen to Britain?

As BRICS becomes more influential, Britain may find itself facing greater competition for essential resources, particularly energy, minerals and manufactured goods.

Some international trading relationships will change. Britain’s financial influence may diminish, and the advantages previously enjoyed through Western dominance of international finance could weaken.

These developments may add to the pressures already affecting the British economy.

Higher costs for essential goods and services leave households with less money for discretionary purchases. Businesses supplying these purchases experience falling demand, with consequences for employment and investment.

Britain’s dependence upon imported goods and complex international supply chains makes it particularly vulnerable.

But these difficulties also create the circumstances in which Localism begins to develop.

How BRICS Will Encourage Localism

The connection between BRICS and Localism is indirect but important.

BRICS is concerned with reorganising economic relationships between nations. Localism emerges when individuals and communities respond to changing economic circumstances.

As international trade becomes more expensive or less dependable, producing goods closer to where they are needed becomes increasingly attractive.

Local food production, repair services, building maintenance, timber production and other essential activities can gradually assume greater importance.

People losing employment in discretionary industries may find new opportunities in activities meeting local needs.

Land that can no longer be economically farmed through increasingly expensive industrial methods may become available for smaller-scale cultivation.

Families may increasingly depend upon their own productive activities and upon exchanges with neighbours rather than distant suppliers.

These developments do not require governments to introduce Localism as a policy. They arise naturally as economic circumstances change.

Nor does Localism mean the disappearance of national organisation. Railways, specialist hospitals, telecommunications and other essential services will continue to require wider cooperation.

The change is in the balance between local economic activity and dependence upon distant markets.

Two Different Responses to the Same Problem

BRICS and Localism represent two very different responses to a changing world economy.

BRICS seeks to redistribute international economic power while continuing to pursue industrial growth.

Localism emerges as the shrinking economy encourages people to organise more of their everyday economic activities around essential needs and nearby resources.

The success of BRICS may determine which countries retain the greatest international influence. But it cannot remove the energy constraints affecting the industrial economy.

Indeed, the countries within BRICS may eventually experience their own movement towards more local economic arrangements.

The important point is that Localism does not depend upon which group of nations dominates world trade.

It arises from the changing physical and economic circumstances of human life.

BRICS may change who controls the global economy. Localism will change how people live as that economy shrinks.

And in the longer term, the second development may prove far more important than the first.