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For most of the industrial age, migration has been driven by a simple expectation. Life somewhere else would be better. There would be more jobs, higher wages, better services and greater opportunities for children. The movement of millions of people around the world has been made possible by expanding economies, abundant fossil fuels and increasingly affordable transport.

That world is changing.

As the global economy shrinks in real terms, migration will not stop. Indeed, in the short term it may increase. But over time it will become more difficult, more selective and increasingly local. The great age of mass international migration is likely to give way to an era of constrained mobility.

Migration Depends on Surplus

Migration is expensive. It requires transport, housing, employment opportunities and functioning public services. Every migrant depends, directly or indirectly, upon the surplus generated by the receiving economy.

When economies are growing, this surplus can absorb newcomers. New houses are built, businesses expand and governments collect rising tax revenues. Even where tensions arise, growth helps soften the impact.

In a shrinking economy the opposite occurs.

Jobs disappear. Housing becomes scarcer. Infrastructure deteriorates. Governments struggle to maintain existing services. Instead of expanding capacity, society begins managing decline.

Migration therefore becomes a competition for shrinking resources.

Why people will continue to move

Economic decline does not remove the pressures that encourage migration. In many parts of the world they become even stronger.

Climate instability reduces agricultural yields.

Water shortages make farming impossible in some areas.

Political instability increases as governments lose the resources needed to maintain order.

Young people continue to seek better opportunities abroad.

Some coastal settlements become increasingly vulnerable to flooding.

Initially these pressures will increase international migration.

But the countries that once absorbed large numbers of migrants are themselves entering economic contraction. The opportunities which attracted migration begin to disappear.

Britain becomes less attractive

For decades Britain attracted migrants because wages were relatively high, public services were dependable and employment was plentiful.

These advantages are steadily weakening.

Real wages struggle to keep pace with living costs.

Housing becomes increasingly unaffordable.

Public services face growing financial pressures.

Infrastructure ages faster than it can be replaced.

The United Kingdom will remain attractive compared with many poorer countries, but the gap narrows. Migrants may still arrive, yet many will find that the prosperity they expected no longer exists.

Increasing numbers may also choose not to come.

A changing pattern of movement

Migration itself may become more regional.

Instead of crossing continents, people may move shorter distances.

Migration within Europe may replace migration from much further afield.

People may move from large cities to smaller towns where housing remains affordable.

Families may regroup in familiar localities rather than disperse across the globe.

The enormous energy costs associated with long-distance migration become harder to justify as fuel prices remain structurally high and disposable incomes decline.

What happens to population?

Global population is unlikely to continue growing indefinitely.

Industrial civilisation allowed population to rise by providing abundant food, modern medicine, sanitation and mechanised agriculture. All of these depend upon high levels of affordable energy.

As surplus energy declines, population growth slows and eventually reverses.

Many developed countries already have birth rates well below replacement level.

Developing countries are also seeing fertility decline, although often from much higher starting points.

Population may continue to rise for a time because people are living longer and because of demographic momentum. Eventually, however, deaths begin to exceed births.

Migration cannot reverse this globally.

It merely redistributes people.

The world as a whole must ultimately live within the carrying capacity supported by available energy, soils, water and climate.

Britain will age

The United Kingdom already has an ageing population.

Governments have often viewed migration as a way of maintaining the workforce and supporting tax revenues.

This works while the economy continues expanding.

In a shrinking economy it becomes increasingly difficult.

More workers do not automatically create more prosperity if the economy itself cannot grow. Instead, additional demand for housing, healthcare, transport and energy may simply place greater strain on declining systems.

The challenge becomes one of adaptation rather than expansion.

Why localism becomes more important

As international systems weaken, communities become more important.

People increasingly depend upon nearby suppliers rather than distant ones.

Food production becomes more local.

Repair replaces replacement.

Neighbours become more valuable than distant institutions.

Migration does not disappear. People will still move between localities. Some areas may gain population while others lose it. Rural districts with productive land, reliable water and strong communities may become increasingly attractive.

Local resilience becomes more important than national averages.

The return of locality

History suggests that periods of contraction reduce mobility.

Before cheap fossil fuels, most people spent their entire lives within a relatively small area. Long-distance movement existed but involved only a minority.

Industrialisation reversed that pattern.

The coming decades may gradually reverse it again.

People are unlikely to become completely immobile. Digital communications will continue to connect communities. Some international migration will remain essential for specialised skills, family reunification and humanitarian protection.

But everyday life is likely to become increasingly rooted in place.

A different future

The political debate often assumes migration is simply a matter of border control or immigration policy.

In reality it is closely linked to economics and energy.

As surplus energy declines and economic contraction becomes permanent, migration patterns will change whether governments wish them to or not.

Some countries will become less able to receive large numbers of newcomers.

Others will become less able to retain their own populations.

Over time, mobility itself becomes another resource constrained by energy and affordability.

For localism, this presents both challenges and opportunities.

Communities will need to welcome those who genuinely become part of local life while strengthening their own capacity to provide food, water, energy, housing and mutual support. Success will depend less upon the size of the national economy than upon the resilience of individual localities.

In the shrinking economy, the future belongs not to places that rely upon endless growth, but to places that learn how to thrive within limits. Localism is not a retreat from the wider world. It is an adaptation to a world in which distance becomes increasingly expensive, resources increasingly constrained, and community increasingly valuable.