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Productivity growth in the U.K. has flatlined since the Global Financial Crisis and has now been reset to levels of growth not seen since the 1850s, a new report published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi highlighted.

I invited ChatGPT to imagine a future based on how things were in 1750.

As the 21st century progresses, a quiet but profound realisation is taking root: economic growth is ending as we know it.

For centuries, industrialised societies have relied on ever-increasing consumption, extraction, and expansion to fuel their economies.

But now, the ecological limits of the planet, combined with the exhaustion of crucial resources and the collapse of global systems, are bringing the growth model to its final chapter. This transformation has been anticipated for decades by thinkers and writers who have warned of the consequences of pushing human systems beyond their natural bounds.

The Degrowth Movement and Economists’ Warnings

One of the most prominent voices in this arena is Herman Daly, a former World Bank economist and the father of the “steady-state economy” concept.

Daly has long argued that infinite economic growth is impossible on a planet with finite resources. He warned that humanity would have to shift from focusing on growth to sustainability and balance.

In his words: “The larger system, the biosphere, is not growing, and it cannot grow. So what is growing is the subsystem, the economy, and it is growing into the biosphere, absorbing it… The economy is devouring the world“.

Daly’s vision is not one of economic collapse but of a conscious transition to a steady-state economy, where material consumption is limited, and the focus shifts toward human well-being, equity, and ecological balance.

However, many argue that such a transition will not be smooth or voluntary. The momentum of growth-based economies and the entrenched interests of powerful industries make a managed transition unlikely. This leads to the conclusion that we will crash into the limits of growth rather than step down gracefully.

Resource Depletion and Technological Limits

Renowned energy economist Tim Morgan has echoed these concerns in his Surplus Energy Economics blog writings.

Morgan emphasises the energy return on energy invested (EROEI), which measures how much energy we gain from extracting resources like oil compared to how much energy we have to invest to get it. As fossil fuels become harder to extract, their EROEI declines, making modern industrial society unsustainable.

Morgan argues that the idea of endless economic growth is a delusion, and the energy constraints we face will force a dramatic relocalisation of economies.

He believes the future will be marked by “degrowth” and a return to smaller-scale, simpler economies as global supply chains break down under energy scarcity:

“The reality is that surplus energy is declining. This means that future prosperity will be lower than enjoyed in the recent past, and, importantly, the global economy will not be able to sustain the vast complexities that depend on cheap, abundant energy”.

The Science Fiction of No Growth: A Return to Localism

While economists like Daly and Morgan have offered real-world analyses of the collapse of growth, science fiction writers have long provided visions of what such a world might look like.

One of the most haunting and influential of these writers is Ursula K. Le Guin. In her novel The Dispossessed, Le Guin explores the idea of an anarchist society living on a resource-scarce planet where growth and accumulation are impossible.

Le Guin imagines a world where people must live within strict ecological and material limits, where excess consumption is unsustainable and socially taboo. Her protagonist, Shevek, experiences firsthand the challenges of living in a society that rejects material growth in favour of cooperation, frugality, and balance with nature. Le Guin’s work resonates deeply with the degrowth movement and the idea that the future will require a radical rethinking of human priorities.

“There was no comfortable illusion of unlimited supplies, of inexhaustible resources to support waste. No wonder men believed in the infinite when they could not see the ends of their reach. No wonder they held the soul infinite when their tools were infinite. But to Shevek, there was no justification for that ignorance, for the blind pride in power and in things made” (Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed).

Another notable science fiction writer, Kim Stanley Robinson, explores similar themes in his novel New York 2140. The novel depicts a world after catastrophic climate change has submerged much of the planet’s coastal cities.

Robinson portrays the collapse of global capitalism and the rise of more localised, cooperative economies. His vision of the future suggests that as growth-based economies falter under the weight of climate change and inequality, humanity will need to revert to more localised, sustainable systems of production and exchange.

“The old system is no longer tenable… The only possible future is one of steady-state economics, localism, and ecological balance. If we don’t embrace it, nature will force it upon us” (Kim Stanley Robinson, New York 2140).

Climate Breakdown and Social Collapse

The most immediate driver of this no-growth future is the accelerating climate crisis, which is already beginning to unravel the infrastructure and systems that support global growth.

Climate scientist Kevin Anderson has warned that industrial civilisation is facing an existential crisis, not only because of the physical impacts of climate change but because of the political and social collapse that will follow the destruction of key resources, food systems, and economies:

“We face a very real possibility of a collapse in the fabric of society, which has been built around the assumption that energy and resources will always be cheap and abundant. Climate change will expose the fallacy of this assumption, forcing us into a radically different kind of society” (Kevin Anderson).

As droughts, floods, wildfires, and rising seas increasingly disrupt the global economy, many experts believe that large-scale, centralised systems will break down, leaving societies to fend for themselves locally. This is not a voluntary return to simplicity but a necessary adaptation to the new realities of a planet under stress.

A Future Rooted in the Past

As these thinkers suggest, the end of growth will force humanity to return to more localised, simpler ways of living—whether by choice or necessity.

The complexity and interconnectedness of modern life will gradually unravel as energy, resources, and climate stability decline. This transition could lead to a future that looks much more like the pre-industrial world of 1750 than the high-tech dreams of 20th-century science fiction.

But this future is not necessarily a dystopia. As Ursula Le Guin and Kim Stanley Robinson have shown, returning to localism could bring new forms of social cooperation, resilience, and equity. In this future, human societies might rediscover their connection to nature, build more sustainable economies, and form communities based on mutual aid and ecological balance.

The road to this future, however, will not be smooth. As Tim Morgan, Herman Daly, and Kevin Anderson have all warned, the collapse of growth-based systems will be painful and disruptive. The industrial world, built on a foundation of endless extraction and expansion, will give way to a world of limits and localism. In this post-growth future, the lessons of the past will become essential for survival—teaching us how to live with less, share more, and rediscover the art of resilience.