The diesel problem reaches far beyond the filling station. It concerns the cost of producing food, moving goods and maintaining the physical foundations of everyday life.

In her article, “Can the diesel and jet fuel shortage be solved?”, published on 30 September 2026, Gail Tverberg argues that the difficulties are deeper than the immediate disruption of international supplies. Her central concern is whether producers can supply these fuels at prices that consumers can afford.

This is an important distinction. Oil remaining underground is not the same as affordable fuel available for use.

The affordability problem

Tverberg identifies a conflict between the needs of producers and consumers. Producers need prices high enough to justify extraction, processing and investment. Consumers need prices low enough to leave money for everything else.

More expensive production can therefore create a problem that neither side can easily resolve. A price that makes additional production worthwhile may also make the resulting fuel unaffordable for many of its users.

For Britain, the implications extend throughout the economy. Diesel powers agricultural machinery, delivery vehicles and much construction equipment. Its cost enters the price of food, building work and countless goods transported by road.

Businesses may initially absorb an increase. Eventually, they must raise prices, reduce their margins, cut activity or close. Households then have less money available after paying for essentials. Discretionary spending comes under further pressure.

From a localism perspective, this is one of the mechanisms through which economic shrinkage can develop. The economy becomes more expensive to operate, while people become less able to afford its output.

More oil does not necessarily restore growth

Tverberg discusses the possibility of obtaining more fuel from heavy oil and bitumen. She also recognises that expanding production would take time and that the resulting fuels could remain expensive.

Her argument invites a question. If maintaining fuel supplies requires higher prices, how much of the existing economy can continue to function at those prices?

Additional supply could ease particular shortages without restoring the conditions that supported earlier growth. More effort and expenditure may be required simply to maintain essential activities.

There are uncertainties in the analysis. Different crude oils yield different products, and refinery equipment also matters. Falling fuel consumption per person does not, by itself, establish a shortage. Efficiency, changing travel patterns and changes in industrial activity can also affect consumption.

Nevertheless, the distinction between physical availability and economic affordability remains valuable. An economy needs energy that it can afford to use.

Localism reduces the work demanded of fuel

One response is to seek more supply. Another is to reduce the amount of transport and machinery needed to provide a satisfactory life.

This is where localism becomes relevant.

Food grown nearer its consumers may require less transport. Repairing useful goods can reduce the need for replacements. Shared deliveries can avoid duplicated journeys. Local workplaces, shops and services can bring daily activities closer together.

These arrangements would not remove dependence on diesel. A local grower may still need machinery, tools and materials from elsewhere. A small workshop may depend on national electricity supplies and manufactured components.

Nor is local production automatically more efficient. A poorly loaded van making numerous journeys can use more fuel per item than an efficient bulk delivery. The practical aim is to reduce unnecessary movement, waste and dependence wherever circumstances allow.

Localism develops through such practical choices. People respond to what they can afford and what their locality can provide.

Essentials take precedence

As household budgets tighten, spending increasingly concentrates on food, warmth, housing and care. Work serving these needs may become more important within local economies.

Some opportunities could emerge in growing food, repairing equipment, maintaining homes, preparing meals and providing personal services. These activities need skills, suitable premises and customers able to pay. Their development would require practical support and cooperation.

A national core would remain necessary. Localities cannot independently provide every medicine, specialist hospital service, communications network or major transport connection.

The relationship could gradually change, however. More everyday provision could develop locally, while national systems concentrate resources on functions that genuinely require their scale.

An economy adapted to its means

Tverberg suggests that economies may reorganise themselves around more expensive fuel and lower consumption. Seen through the lens of localism, this could mean shorter supply chains, greater attention to maintenance and a stronger emphasis on essentials.

The process would not be painless or uniform. Some localities would have advantages in land, skills, buildings and cooperation. Others would face considerable difficulties.

But trying indefinitely to preserve every feature of an economy built around cheap transport may become increasingly costly.

The more useful question is how to provide a good life with less movement, less waste and fewer demands on expensive energy. That places quality and sufficiency at the centre of economic life.

Source: Gail Tverberg, “Can the diesel and jet fuel shortage be solved?”, Our Finite World, 30 September 2026.